CR Question

[Mohammad Alsayeh]

here is the CR question:

Roland: The alarming fact is that 90 percent of the people in this country
report that they now someone who is unemployed

Sharon: but a normal, moderate level of unemployment is 5 percent, with 1 out of 20 workers unemployed. so at a given time, if a person knows approximately 50 workers, 1 or more will very likely be unemployed

sharon`s argument relies on the assumption that:

A - Normal level of unemployment rarely exceeds

B - unemployment is not normally concentrated on geographically isolated
segments of population

C - the number of people who each know someone who is unemployed is always higher than 90 percent of the population

D - Roland is not consciously distorting the statistics that he presents

E - knowledge that a person acquaintance is unemployed generates more
fear of losing one`s job than does knowledge of unemployment statistics

the right answer is (B), but why??????????????

Thanks in advance

[JohnB]

Hi Mohammed,

The first step in solving this identify the assumption question is to get clear on the evidence and conclusion. Sharon's argument can be summarized as follows:

Evidence: The normal unemployment rate is 5%, or 1 in 20.

Conclusion: The average person can expect that 1 out of 20 of the workers that he or she knows is unemployed. So if most people know 50 workers, they will probably know someone who is unemployed.

To get from the evidence to the conclusion, though, we have to assume that the unemployment rate is evenly distributed throughout the country. If there are pockets of high unemployment, say in the inner cities, then there will be other areas with lower than average unemployment. In this case, the average person would not necessarily know someone who is unemployed.

So, Sharon must assume that the unemployment rate is evenly distributed, which is what choice B tells us.

Thanks for the question--let me know if you want further details.

All best,
John