Thread: CR Question
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Old 03-04-2008, 11:40 PM
JohnB JohnB is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2007
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Hi Mohammed,

The first step in solving this identify the assumption question is to get clear on the evidence and conclusion. Sharon's argument can be summarized as follows:

Evidence: The normal unemployment rate is 5%, or 1 in 20.

Conclusion: The average person can expect that 1 out of 20 of the workers that he or she knows is unemployed. So if most people know 50 workers, they will probably know someone who is unemployed.

To get from the evidence to the conclusion, though, we have to assume that the unemployment rate is evenly distributed throughout the country. If there are pockets of high unemployment, say in the inner cities, then there will be other areas with lower than average unemployment. In this case, the average person would not necessarily know someone who is unemployed.

So, Sharon must assume that the unemployment rate is evenly distributed, which is what choice B tells us.

Thanks for the question--let me know if you want further details.

All best,
John
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